Market Update – Nov 2018
I know that you are saying something like, “aren’t you a little outdated by saying November last year?”. As a REALTOR®, I must stay abreast to market changes. This is especially true in regards to appreciation from year to year.
This may seem true but you do need to realize it takes time to compile data and do an analytical analysis.
All data is from Fidelity National Title.
One Year Analysis
Data on the map is from November 2017 to November 2018. At this time last year in 2017, the number of homes for sale was near 5000 while in 2018 we were over 8000. Thus, there was a dramatic increase in inventory during that time. One would think while inventory increases the prices should stay the same or possibly even decrease.
This is not seen in most of the zip codes across the Valley. In fact, most zip codes had a value increase.
Some of this may be attributed to the sports teams who are coming to Vegas (football – Raiders) or the teams who just expanded here (hockey – Golden Knights). There is even talk about having a major league baseball team coming to Vegas.
This may cause the population to grow which could cause an increase in demand for housing.
Middle Range Housing
The above map may also be a little misleading. The above map does account for everything sold in Las Vegas.
The average priced home in Las Vegas is around $300,000. The map to the right is a representation of the same homes as above but is limited to price ranges of $250,000 to $699,999. Thus, your lower-end homes and the upper-end homes are eliminated. This gives a more realistic evaluation of values where most of your home buyers will reside.
As you may see in this image that there is positive appreciation throughout most of Las Vegas with the exception of three zip codes in the Northeast.
Should I Buy Now or Wait
That is always the question an investor or your regular home buyer always ask. The answer I have is I have no idea. I do not have a crystal ball or a Magic 8 Ball. Appreciation can be a tricky thing to predict.
Las Vegas does have a lot of things going on around us. Typically the Spring and Summer months you will see a lot more home buying than you do in the winter months. Often this is due to tax refunds and those warmer months are times when people do relocate. Because of buying can cause a rise in values, thus a higher appreciation.
If you are buying for the long term then it doesn’t really matter. All markets go through ups and downs.
The better question you could be asking is not about the home prices. Even if prices dropped a bit it does not really affect you unless you sold the home. If you are in it for 10 or more years then you should see a price increase. Most real estate cycles are 5 to 7 years.
The real question you should be asking is will my mortgage payment (less the tax savings from interest payments) is higher or lower than a rental payment. If you are paying less on a mortgage payment than a rental payment then you will save money from buying a home.
If your rental payment is near the same then you could still be ahead because of the tax savings (ask your CPA about that one).
If your rental payment is dramatically less than a mortgage payment then this will be a personal judgment call.
As a REALTOR
As a REALTOR® with TR Realty, I go only give you the data. It is up to you to make your own determination from that data.
When you do decide to purchase a home you need to understand what a buyer needs to know while staring along that path.
About Kevin Dunlap
Kevin Dunlap is a local REALTOR® with TR Realty. He has been licensed since 2012. He got started in real estate as an investor in early 2002. He bought two homes in his first year and a small apartment complex in 2003.
After moving to Las Vegas in 2004 he started a real estate consulting company primarily in the area of lease options and seller financing.
He is the author of three books. His first book, Lease Options Made Easy, came out in January 2015 and can be found on Amazon.